Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6be…4432 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$8
other 42% +$5
sports 3% −$1
politics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 21 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 24 -5.3% -14.3% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 47 -4.1% -13.2% 40% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 6% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 6% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 4% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage521d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $17 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -31%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $3 $0 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $203 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $35 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $36 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $34 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $5 −$2 -46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $44 −$6 -13%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $297 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $12 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $12 −$1 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $141 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $245 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 14 $11 +$5 +51%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $11 $0 -1%
NHL 4 Nations: Finland vs. USA Mar 05 $8 +$3 +30%
Mercer vs. Furman Feb 13 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Chelsea vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Jan 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $35 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $15 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $20 10h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $17 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $33 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 19¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 19¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $31 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records