Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb6bd…dd13 crypto 1092 markets active 22h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 177d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-1%) realized −$152 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate66%714W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$69
14 days+$72
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$157
crypto 32% −$401
other 7% +$327
world 2% +$20
politics 0% −$2
finance 0% −$19
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.2% -8.4% 59% 50% -14.2%
≤30d 40 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 45% -9.9%
≤90d 348 -5.8% -14.8% 66% 51% -16.8%
all 1088 -2.9% -12.2% 66% 56% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 56% -10.5%
10% -20.6% 40% -19.1%
15% -28.2% 23% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses714 / 374
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1088 / 1092
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1088 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $521 +$20 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $101 +$20 +19%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $40 +$6 +15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$15 +158%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -90%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $249 −$124 -50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $301 +$29 +10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$13 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$31 -62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $74 +$153 +207%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $257 −$205 -80%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $105 +$198 +189%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $20 +$14 +67%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Circuit May 27 $10 −$6 -62%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $6 +$5 +79%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $72 −$61 -84%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +118%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $23 +$8 +34%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 May 23 $21 −$6 -28%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 23 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $20 +$8 +40%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $9 +$8 +86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $12 +$6 +50%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $10 +$14 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 98¢ $120 31h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 82¢ $101 31h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 97¢ $36 34h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $20 34h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 23¢ $3 34h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 22¢ $0 34h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 44¢ $7 34h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 56¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 63¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 69¢ $10 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 46h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz $1 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 27¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Metizport 78¢ $10 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $329 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 91¢ $301 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 15¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 43¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.60 · official $44.60 (match) · 3405 history records