Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:15:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6b7…b9e1 crypto 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-4%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%125W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$6
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 50% -18.6%
≤30d 184 -2.5% -11.8% 56% 44% -17.4%
≤90d 231 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 44% -17.2%
all 231 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 44% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 44% -17.2%
10% -20.1% 30% -25.1%
15% -27.8% 23% -32.3%
20% -34.9% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses125 / 106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 900 history records