trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 06 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | Apr 20 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Apr 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 17 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 15 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Apr 14 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 12 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Mar 20 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Kansas State vs. Cincinnati | Mar 04 | $19 | −$12 | -64% |
| Will Trump say 'Epstein' during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 04 | $20 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump say 'Putin' during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| San José State vs. Colorado State | Mar 04 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 60-70 min? | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| St. Francis (PA) vs. Le-Moyne | Mar 04 | $10 | +$10 | +100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 17% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 17% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 25 | -2.9% | -12.2% | 44% | 4% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.2% | 4% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -20.6% | 4% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -28.2% | 4% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 4% | -34.0% |