Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:13:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6b1…c40b world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$7
other 28% +$2
sports 4% −$2
politics 4% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.1% 22% 11% -8.0%
≤30d 19 +1.2% -8.5% 32% 5% -8.7%
≤90d 19 +1.2% -8.5% 32% 5% -8.7%
all 45 -1.7% -11.1% 40% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.0%
10% -19.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage472d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 +$5 +14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $137 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $34 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $16 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Luis Arce win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $11 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 10 $14 $0 -2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 03 $1 $0 -5%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $12 +$2 +13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $15 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $39 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $5 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $6 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $28 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $9 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $14 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $21 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records