Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb6b0…030d crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-8%) realized −$140 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%43W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$112
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$115
other 10% −$63
sports 6% +$60
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +14.5% +3.6% 64% 53% -16.3%
≤30d 59 +14.5% +3.6% 64% 53% -16.3%
≤90d 59 +14.5% +3.6% 64% 53% -16.3%
all 66 +13.8% +2.9% 65% 53% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 53% -17.0%
10% -6.9% 41% -24.9%
15% -15.9% 33% -32.2%
20% -24.2% 23% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses43 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 70
History coverage101d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.25 · official $46.66 (match) · 146 history records