Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6ae…86c2 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 21% −$1
politics 21% −$1
crypto 17% −$3
culture 13% $0
sports 13% $0
other 10% +$1
finance 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -2.5% -11.8% 18% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage305d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $45 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 25 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 25 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on August 25? Aug 25 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $6 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 25 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Aug 21 $9 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 21 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $28 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $5 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $34 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $32 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $15 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $21 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $26 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $2 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $8 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $35 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 26d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 291d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 291d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 89¢ $11 299d
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 299d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records