Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6ab…178d sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,380 (-32%) realized −$3,380 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 51L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,735
7 days+$800
14 days+$800
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,755
other 44% −$770
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +123.3% +102.0% 41% 41% +21.5%
≤30d 23 +71.7% +55.4% 35% 35% -2.4%
≤90d 44 +63.5% +47.9% 30% 30% -23.4%
all 69 +32.6% +20.0% 26% 26% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.0% 26% -33.5%
10% +8.5% 26% -39.9%
15% -2.0% 26% -45.7%
20% -11.6% 26% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$145 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,380
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage122d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$84 +543%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $65 +$817 +1261%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $122 +$298 +245%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $248 −$245 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $38 −$37 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $142 +$353 +250%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $71 −$70 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $101 +$206 +203%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $117 +$459 +393%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $119 +$237 +200%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $696 −$684 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $960 +$525 +55%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $158 −$154 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $255 −$250 -98%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) May 24 $449 −$440 -98%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $68 −$66 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $206 −$202 -98%
Millwall FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $76 −$76 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $126 −$124 -99%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $507 +$375 +74%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $38 +$162 +426%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 06 $180 −$180 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $66 +$118 +178%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $230 −$225 -98%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 19 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $92 +$228 +246%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $110 −$109 -99%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) Apr 05 $280 −$277 -99%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Mar 31 $202 −$201 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $306 +$197 +64%
Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 1.5 Mar 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $80 −$77 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $38 +$141 +370%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 02 $279 −$279 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $881 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $65 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 16¢ $49 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $5 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $7 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $6 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $2 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $8 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $13 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $24 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $36 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $9 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $2 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $6 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $14 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $6 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $137 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $143 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 24¢ $42 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 24¢ $10 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 24¢ $70 4h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 5h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $84 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 302 history records