Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb6a7…eb01 sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+3%) realized +$49 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%72W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$5
14 days+$54
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 36% +$58
sports 35% −$12
politics 11% +$17
other 8% −$23
world 7% +$4
crypto 1% −$10
economics 1% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +72.5% +56.1% 67% 33% -12.3%
≤30d 20 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 40% +8.4%
≤90d 110 -5.8% -14.8% 65% 44% -6.7%
all 110 -5.8% -14.8% 65% 44% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -6.7%
10% -22.9% 24% -15.7%
15% -30.4% 15% -23.8%
20% -37.2% 10% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses72 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)110 / 117
History coverage84d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 29 $21 −$15 -74%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 27 $140 +$3 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 26 $2 +$7 +289%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -53%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $82 +$51 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +17%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $21 +$19 +92%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 17 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $20 +$16 +78%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 11 $2 $0 +21%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen May 10 $1 −$1 -59%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 03 $1 $0 +21%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $1 $0 +15%
Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $31 −$29 -95%
La Bisbal: Alina Charaeva vs Daria Kasatkina May 01 $2 +$1 +67%
Shymkent 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Mili Poljicak May 01 $1 $0 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $46 +$7 +16%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $1 $0 +16%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26? Apr 26 $1 $0 +24%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $1 $0 +27%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $1 $0 +36%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $5 +$3 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 25 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $1 $0 +8%
Madrid Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Kamilla Rakhimova Apr 22 $1 $0 +17%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes $6 6h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $21 28h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $140 2d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $15 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $0 8d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $1 8d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 9d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $2 9d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? SELL Yes $3 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $5 9d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? BUY Yes $3 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.29 · official $128.40 (match) · 311 history records