Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb6a7…5018 crypto 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+2%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%114W / 50L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$34
14 days+$18
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$24
other 1% +$6
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +2.3% -7.4% 85% 17% -6.3%
≤30d 127 +4.4% -5.6% 77% 21% -7.9%
≤90d 164 +0.0% -9.5% 70% 26% -8.5%
all 164 +0.0% -9.5% 70% 26% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 26% -8.5%
10% -18.2% 19% -17.2%
15% -26.1% 19% -25.2%
20% -33.3% 16% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses114 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage44d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 93¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.50 · official $10.51 (match) · 575 history records