Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb6a6…7971 other 473 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,112 (+3%) realized +$1,644 · open +$468
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%222W / 248L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$2,447
14 days+$2,447
30 days+$2,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$3,062
crypto 35% −$2,674
sports 28% +$1,714
world 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 53% +14.3%
≤30d 43 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 53% +14.3%
≤90d 241 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 46% -10.6%
all 470 -4.1% -13.3% 47% 47% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 47% -7.6%
10% -21.6% 46% -16.4%
15% -29.1% 42% -24.5%
20% -36.1% 38% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$136 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$868
Realized+$1,644
Unrealized+$468
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses222 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions3
Markets (closed)470 / 473
History coverage151d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 100¢ $200 $401 +$201 (+101%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ 100¢ $100 $263 +$163 (+163%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 100¢ $100 $204 +$104 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $203 +$142 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $203 +$197 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$55 +55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $201 +$58 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$60 +60%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $407 +$593 +146%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $710 +$591 +83%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $305 +$376 +123%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $304 +$295 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $508 −$508 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $89 −$87 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $305 +$416 +136%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $912 +$111 +12%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$168 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $388 +$955 +246%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$314 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 29 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 29 $968 −$968 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 29 $500 +$470 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $102 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $102 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $102 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $203 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $202 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $101 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $101 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $201 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $101 21h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $407 25h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $599 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $101 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $101 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $89 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $101 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $102 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $405 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $304 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 34h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $102 34h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $868.21 · official $868.21 (match) · 1046 history records