trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 50% | 17% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 27% | 9% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 27% | 9% | -10.5% |
| all | 22 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 45% | 5% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.7% | 5% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 0% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 78¢ | 92¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $34 | +$1 | +3% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $105 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $59 | −$5 | -9% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $3 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Jun 11 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 09 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 05 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 12 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 12 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 12 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr | Jun 05 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | +0% |