Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb69c…48e7 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$150 (-17%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$104
14 days−$104
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$40
crypto 29% −$159
world 21% −$19
sports 19% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.7% -40.9% 56% 44% -24.5%
≤30d 18 -34.7% -40.9% 56% 44% -24.5%
≤90d 20 -35.6% -41.8% 55% 45% -24.7%
all 28 -29.3% -36.0% 57% 39% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 39% -20.8%
10% -42.2% 14% -28.4%
15% -47.7% 11% -35.3%
20% -52.9% 4% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage195d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $121 +$19 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$11 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$3 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $87 +$34 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 07 $4 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 08 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 08 $45 +$3 +7%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $113 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 9? Feb 22 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 9? Feb 22 $5 +$3 +67%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Dec 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $77 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $63 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $63 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $58 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $58 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $41 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $89 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $81 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $2 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $14 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $50 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $45 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records