Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb69a…9624 world 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$7
other 18% +$8
sports 3% −$3
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -2.0% -11.3% 31% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 33 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 3% -9.2%
all 46 -5.4% -14.4% 37% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 4% -9.1%
10% -22.6% 2% -17.8%
15% -30.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -36.9% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage544d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $8 −$1 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $44 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $73 +$4 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $36 +$5 +15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $3 −$1 -27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $468 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $234 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $232 +$2 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? May 24 $51 +$2 +4%
Will James Uthmeier be appointed as the next Florida senator? Feb 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? Feb 05 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Jan 20 $13 −$3 -25%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 20 $8 $0 -6%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 20 $14 −$2 -13%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC South? Jan 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West? Jan 02 $23 +$12 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 22m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 22m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $7 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $3 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $5 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 41h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $24 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $42 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $42 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $12 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records