Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb69a…7c05 politics 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,241 (+10%) realized +$2,211 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate52%57W / 53L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$127
14 days+$126
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% +$1,587
other 2% +$176
world 2% +$10
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 17% -3.2%
≤30d 31 -10.2% -18.7% 61% 16% -11.1%
≤90d 108 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 31% -3.7%
all 110 -2.9% -12.1% 52% 31% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 31% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 27% -11.1%
15% -28.2% 20% -19.7%
20% -35.3% 13% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$65 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$833
Realized+$2,211
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses57 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)110 / 126
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$185
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $230 $207 −$23 (-10%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 53¢ $89 $205 +$115 (+129%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026? No 97¢ 95¢ $116 $114 −$3 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $107 $112 +$6 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $35 $36 +$2 (+4%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026? Yes 40¢ 15¢ $96 $36 −$60 (-63%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $25 $30 +$6 (+23%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-78%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 24 $302 −$34 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 19, 2026 Jun 20 $141 −$127 -90%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $530 +$7 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 Jun 20 $469 +$272 +58%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $284 +$9 +3%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 19, 2026 Jun 18 $154 +$6 +4%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $292 +$96 +33%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $261 −$86 -33%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $133 +$7 +6%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $525 −$30 -6%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $74 +$5 +6%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $61 +$7 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $51 +$26 +50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $28 −$25 -88%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $1,526 −$24 -2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $80 −$69 -87%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $114 +$4 +4%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $84 −$72 -85%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 39.5 on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May? Jun 01 $253 +$8 +3%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May? Jun 01 $475 −$187 -39%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.0% by the end of May? Jun 01 $164 +$4 +2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 29, 2026? May 31 $354 −$137 -39%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 29, 2026? May 30 $544 +$156 +29%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 39.5 on May 29, 2026? May 30 $130 +$7 +5%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 29, 2026? May 30 $327 +$7 +2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on May 29, 2026? May 30 $284 +$19 +7%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 29, 2026? May 30 $25 +$2 +7%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 26 $13 $0 -2%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 23 $412 +$165 +40%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026? May 23 $467 +$56 +12%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on May 22, 2026? May 23 $577 +$133 +23%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on May 22, 2026? May 23 $74 +$3 +4%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 22, 2026? May 22 $668 −$12 -2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 22, 2026? May 22 $253 +$16 +6%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026? May 22 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 39.5 on May 22, 2026? May 21 $162 +$4 +2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on May 15, 2026? May 16 $211 +$10 +5%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 15, 2026? May 16 $119 +$5 +4%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on May 15, 2026? May 16 $373 +$2 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 15, 2026? May 16 $465 +$179 +38%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 15, 2026? May 16 $55 −$45 -82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 15, 2026? May 16 $135 −$86 -64%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% by the end of May? May 14 $49 +$12 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $344 −$36 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 88¢ $27 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $8 3h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $13 10h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $15 21h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY No 97¢ $104 21h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 3¢ $3 21h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $5 27h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $10 28h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 15¢ $10 28h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $46 28h
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $24 28h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $3 28h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $63 31h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $833.27 · official $833.27 (match) · 3500 history records