Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb697…5d0c sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$4 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 139d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$11
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-72.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 -69.1% -72.1% 25% 25% -88.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.1% 25% -88.5%
10% -74.7% 25% -89.6%
15% -77.2% 0% -90.6%
20% -79.4% 0% -91.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage139d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $437 $433 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FlyQuest (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO5) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 08 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $442 1h
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FlyQuest (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 34¢ $2 120d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FlyQuest (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 37¢ $2 120d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Xtreme Gaming 63¢ $3 120d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 8? BUY No 5¢ $1 139d
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO5) - LCK Cup Play-In BUY DRX 81¢ $1 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.13 · official $433.13 (match) · 7 history records