trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra | Jun 07 | $73 | −$68 | -93% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $100 | −$98 | -97% |
| Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th | May 14 | $76 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th | Apr 20 | $82 | −$5 | -6% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? | Apr 20 | $99 | −$17 | -18% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -95.1% | -95.5% | 0% | 0% | -95.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -42.9% | -48.3% | 0% | 0% | -49.1% |
| all | 5 | -42.9% | -48.3% | 0% | 0% | -49.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -48.3% | 0% | -49.1% |
| 10% | -53.2% | 0% | -54.0% |
| 15% | -57.8% | 0% | -58.4% |
| 20% | -61.9% | 0% | -62.5% |