Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb695…f967 crypto 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+6%) realized +$237 · open −$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%60W / 88L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$129
crypto 42% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -53.1% -57.6% 21% 21% -23.0%
≤30d 20 +68.9% +52.8% 30% 30% +4.7%
≤90d 148 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 36% -10.6%
all 148 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 36% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 36% -10.6%
10% -26.7% 34% -19.1%
15% -33.8% 30% -26.9%
20% -40.2% 26% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$237
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 88
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage55d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Nigma Galaxy 24¢ 27¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 42¢ 0¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $22 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $90 −$88 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $33 +$32 +96%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $149 +$206 +138%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $32 +$38 +120%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $50 −$48 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $84 −$82 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $71 +$162 +226%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $75 −$73 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $97 +$106 +109%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $59 +$114 +196%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum above 2,095 on May 19, 12PM ET? May 19 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin above 76,800 on May 19, 12PM ET? May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin above 78,000 on May 19, 6AM ET? May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum above 2,195 on May 19, 6AM ET? May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin above 78,200 on May 18, 6PM ET? May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin above 78,600 on May 18, 6PM ET? May 18 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin above 77,200 on May 18, 10AM ET? May 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum above 2,165 on May 18, 3AM ET? May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum above 2,135 on May 18, 3AM ET? May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 24? May 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin above 78,800 on May 17, 1PM ET? May 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Ethereum above 2,240 on May 17, 11AM ET? May 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin above 78,800 on May 17, 8AM ET? May 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 16 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 16 $1 +$4 +331%
Bitcoin above 79,200 on May 16, 6AM ET? May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 09 $6 +$4 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 24¢ $102 8m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 32¢ $46 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 42¢ $46 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 57¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 57¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 30¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 19¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 41¢ $10 21h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 40¢ $20 21h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $11 22h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 18¢ $90 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $21 28h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $11 28h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $18 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $17 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $16 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 50¢ $15 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 43¢ $27 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 42¢ $28 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 48¢ $26 42h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $10 43h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 31¢ $33 47h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $17 47h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 23¢ $11 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 28¢ $12 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 23¢ $14 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 29¢ $11 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 32¢ $16 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 47¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.88 · official $182.15 (match) · 317 history records