Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb692…7c83
weather · 740 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9,136 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$185 · open −$69
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,490
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses709 / 15
Open positions16
Markets (closed)724 / 740
History coverage10d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day353.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 16 History 724 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$180
14 days−$185
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $216 $217 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $214 $216 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $213 $215 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $196 $199 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $196 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? No 98¢ 95¢ $195 $188 −$7 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? No 99¢ 96¢ $187 $181 −$6 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $165 $166 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $165 $164 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? No 100¢ 58¢ $157 $92 −$66 (-42%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $191 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $168 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $232 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $144 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $298 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $126 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $187 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $158 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $260 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $174 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $202 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $91 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $165 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$278
crypto 0% +$28
other 0% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $150 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $43 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $151 25m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $216 37m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $86 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 40m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $16 43m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 46m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $214 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $136 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 516 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 2% -9.7%
≤30d 724 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 724 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 2% -9.7%
all 724 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover353.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 2% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,490.10 · official $2,490.10 (match) · 3500 history records