Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb68c…a863 sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$149 (+16%) realized +$150 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 58L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$49
14 days+$45
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$5
other 17% +$23
world 16% +$133
crypto 6% +$24
weather 3% −$27
politics 2% −$21
economics 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +13.5% +2.6% 28% 22% +32.4%
≤30d 34 -13.3% -21.6% 26% 24% -12.0%
≤90d 84 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 29% +6.1%
all 84 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 29% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 29% +6.1%
10% -19.6% 29% -4.0%
15% -27.4% 29% -13.3%
20% -34.5% 25% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$8 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 58
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions23
Markets (closed)84 / 107
History coverage107d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 22¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 +$43 +596%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 +$37 +517%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +194%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $11 +$21 +194%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 31 $27 +$43 +159%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "Table" this week? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $15 +$5 +34%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 19 $20 −$17 -82%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $3 −$3 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $10 +$21 +209%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $10 +$90 +899%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $10 +$30 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 3? May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 2? May 02 $13 −$12 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 40m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 70¢ $44 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 52¢ $15 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.61 · official $85.62 (match) · 196 history records