Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb68c…eda5 other 130 markets active 5d ago coverage 690d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,570 (-0%) realized −$2,570 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate65%83W / 45L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,530per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4,128
14 days−$4,218
30 days−$4,218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$197
other 8% −$897
sports 3% −$1,647
politics 1% −$210
economics 0% −$37
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -81.8% -83.5% 0% 0% -72.7%
≤30d 38 -70.8% -73.6% 5% 0% -50.9%
≤90d 38 -70.8% -73.6% 5% 0% -50.9%
all 128 -16.7% -24.6% 65% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 6% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 4% -18.5%
15% -38.4% 4% -26.4%
20% -44.5% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$97 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

690d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$2,570
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses83 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage690d
Avg bet$4,530
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 19¢ 20¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+8%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $39 $35 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Phillies vs. Reds Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Athletics vs. Orioles Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Red Sox vs. Astros Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Dodgers vs. Angels Jun 22 $127 −$127 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Nationals vs. Giants Jun 22 $120 −$120 -100%
Mets vs. Brewers Jun 22 $149 −$149 -100%
Phillies vs. Rangers Jun 22 $126 −$126 -100%
Marlins vs. Braves Jun 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Red Sox vs. Padres Jun 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Tigers vs. White Sox Jun 22 $111 −$111 -100%
Nationals vs. Royals Jun 22 $109 −$109 -100%
Twins vs. Yankees Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Pirates vs. Brewers Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Rays vs. Mariners Jun 22 $111 −$111 -100%
Angels vs. Tigers Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Rockies vs. Cardinals Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Lynx vs Liberty Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Sun vs Aces Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Jun 22 $107 −$107 -100%
Mystics vs Wings Jun 22 $220 −$220 -100%
Storm vs Sparks Jun 22 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 22 $470 −$40 -8%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Jun 22 $981 −$964 -98%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 20 $105 −$57 -54%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 20 $75 −$12 -16%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 20 $90 −$8 -9%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $256 −$16 -6%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 20 $464 −$30 -6%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 20 $853 −$24 -3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 18 $2,121 −$54 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,118 −$37 -3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana all time high before 2026? Dec 21 $6,537 +$15 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $129,285 +$59 +0%
Will USD.AI launch a token in 2025? Dec 21 $600 +$14 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $4,543 +$8 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 18 $5,981 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $364,559 +$70 +0%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Nov 13 $1,577 +$3 +0%
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 08 $1,574 +$3 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $21,245 +$104 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $223 +$2 +1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $3,283 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Sep 21 $1,247 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 10¢ $48 4d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 13¢ $63 4d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 17¢ $82 4d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 7¢ $73 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $150 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 78¢ $153 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $240 4d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 87¢ $432 4d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $830 4d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 12¢ $24 5d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $90 5d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $763 5d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $51 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $4 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $0 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $1 6d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 15¢ $12 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $8 6d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 15¢ $3 6d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 15¢ $3 6d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 15¢ $6 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $1 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $0 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $0 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $0 6d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 15¢ $15 6d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 15¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.30 · official $76.30 (match) · 983 history records