Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb688…6e48 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$3
other 23% +$2
politics 5% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$2
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 53% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 53% 0% -9.1%
all 35 +5.4% -4.7% 60% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 9% -8.5%
10% -13.8% 6% -17.3%
15% -22.1% 3% -25.3%
20% -29.7% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.68 per $1 lost it wins $6.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage481d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $71 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $48 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 14 $3 $0 -2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 13 $22 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 04 $1 $0 +20%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 04 $1 $0 -14%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +131%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $18 +$1 +5%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 20 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $33 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $14 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $14 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $16 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $17 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $17 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records