Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb67e…6893 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$2
other 12% +$2
weather 4% +$1
sports 2% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 32 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage462d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $67 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $23 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $60 −$2 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 +$1 +7%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 17? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $24 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $23 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $34 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records