Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb67c…4532 sports 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%41W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$818
other 41% +$1,059
crypto 5% −$105
politics 3% −$166
culture 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.1% -43.1% 25% 25% +12.7%
≤30d 14 -36.1% -42.2% 21% 21% -4.5%
≤90d 37 +27.0% +14.9% 35% 35% +5.2%
all 124 -5.2% -14.3% 33% 33% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 33% -8.3%
10% -22.5% 31% -17.0%
15% -30.0% 30% -25.1%
20% -36.8% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$40 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses41 / 83
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage178d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $72 +$45 +63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$9 -55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $64 +$125 +195%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $81 −$79 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $80 −$78 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $82 +$237 +291%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 09 $92 −$89 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $61 +$82 +134%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 02 $36 −$9 -25%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 02 $36 −$6 -16%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $78 −$76 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 19 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $16 +$38 +237%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 18 $35 +$2 +6%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $50 +$77 +154%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $76 +$103 +135%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $95 +$157 +165%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 20 $25 −$14 -57%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 20 $30 +$41 +138%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $45 +$95 +212%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $45 +$219 +488%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $64 +$24 +37%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $64 +$50 +78%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $67 −$2 -4%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $93 +$152 +164%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $91 +$91 +100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Feb 07 $60 −$5 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $46 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL No 97¢ $45 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL No 59¢ $72 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $21 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Over 34¢ $21 3h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $51 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 26h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 38h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 39h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $190 39h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $18 42h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $46 2d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 46¢ $46 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 16d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 6¢ $81 16d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 10¢ $80 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 16d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 22d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 23d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $92 37d
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 43d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 43d
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $40 43d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.02 · official $74.02 (match) · 234 history records