Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb67a…340b sports 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$181 (+12%) realized +$210 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%92W / 210L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$369
7 days+$417
14 days+$442
30 days+$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$453
sports 39% +$99
crypto 4% +$7
culture 1% +$2
world 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.4% -10.8% 45% 45% +49.5%
≤30d 200 -69.7% -72.6% 11% 11% +35.4%
≤90d 200 -69.7% -72.6% 11% 11% +35.4%
all 302 -7.6% -16.4% 30% 28% +27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 28% +27.1%
10% -24.4% 25% +15.0%
15% -31.7% 22% +3.9%
20% -38.4% 19% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$210
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses92 / 210
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions51
Markets (closed)302 / 353
History coverage168d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $254 +$300 +118%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$49 +48%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$16 +141%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$19 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +217%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$44 +210%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -90%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$153 +1356%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
UIC Flames vs. Northern Iowa Panthers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Islanders vs. Jets Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $554 39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $78 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $151 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $69 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.56 · official $40.56 (match) · 976 history records