Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B6 0xb674…59ff other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$4,620 (+65%) realized +$5,212 · open −$592

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$321per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$2,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$830

7 days+$4,464

14 days+$4,446

30 days+$4,446

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-9.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+21.3%	+9.8%	69%	50%	+88.1%
≤30d	20	+5.7%	-4.4%	60%	45%	+86.8%
≤90d	20	+5.7%	-4.4%	60%	45%	+86.8%
all	21	+0.6%	-9.0%	57%	43%	+86.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.0%	43%	+86.7%
10%	-17.7%	43%	+68.8%
15%	-25.6%	33%	+52.5%
20%	-32.9%	19%	+37.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +106% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +106% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late +22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$381 vs −$15 · ×25.44 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×33.92 per $1 lost it wins $33.92

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage

Net worth$2,250

Realized+$5,212

Unrealized−$592

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage124d

Avg bet$321

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	66¢	$2,842	$2,250	−$592 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$500	+$606	+121%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$90	+$2	+2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$500	+$224	+45%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 21	$25	−$1	-6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$100	−$24	-24%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	Jun 21	$10	−$3	-29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$150	+$11	+7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$2,425	+$3,646	+150%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$22	+$13	+60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$70	+$4	+5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$21	−$19	-93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$54	+$15	+28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$77	−$62	-80%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$60	+$38	+64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$21	+$9	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$14	+$7	+46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$13	+$4	+28%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$4	−$2	-56%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video?	Feb 20	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$2,884	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	97¢	$90	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$723	25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$500	39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$500	39h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL No	37¢	$24	45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY No	37¢	$25	45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	22¢	$17	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$50	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	68¢	$59	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	55¢	$50	2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	SELL Paper Rex	1¢	$4	2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	1¢	$5	2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	SELL Paper Rex	2¢	$3	2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	4¢	$5	2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$161	2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	92¢	$50	2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	91¢	$100	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6,071	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	97¢	$2	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	36¢	$2,078	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$35	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$310	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$22	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$74	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	92¢	$70	5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	76¢	$54	5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	17¢	$15	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,250.25 · official $2,250.25 (match) · 57 history records