Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb674…e97a weather 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$382 (-22%) realized −$411 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%54W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$222
14 days−$244
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$370
other 4% +$10
crypto 3% −$11
politics 2% −$7
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -26.7% -33.7% 35% 31% -46.7%
≤30d 102 -18.2% -26.0% 41% 37% -31.6%
≤90d 139 -19.6% -27.3% 39% 34% -32.8%
all 139 -19.6% -27.3% 39% 34% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 34% -32.8%
10% -34.2% 31% -39.3%
15% -40.6% 27% -45.1%
20% -46.4% 22% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses54 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)139 / 143
History coverage55d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Yes 71¢ 99¢ $70 $99 +$29 (+41%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $41 −$23 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$4 +216%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +152%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? Jun 22 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$8 +29%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -37%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $14 −$3 -24%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 29? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 7? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 28? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 21 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 30? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 21 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 −$6 -43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 +$5 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 42¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 79¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 81¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 44¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 41¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 69¢ $33 29h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? SELL Yes 61¢ $16 30h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 30h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 45h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.02 · official $108.02 (match) · 366 history records