Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb673…329a other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$213 (+6%) realized +$497 · open −$284
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$441
14 days+$441
30 days+$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$2
sports 4% +$84
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% −$22
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +43.7% +30.0% 100% 100% +28.4%
≤30d 3 +43.7% +30.0% 100% 100% +28.4%
≤90d 5 -1.8% -11.1% 60% 60% +27.6%
all 23 +6.0% -4.1% 30% 30% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 30% +9.1%
10% -13.3% 30% -1.4%
15% -21.6% 30% -10.9%
20% -29.3% 17% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$31 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$1,753
Realized+$497
Unrealized−$284
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Open positions16
Markets (closed)23 / 39
History coverage611d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,183 $850 −$333 (-28%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $280 $278 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $112 $230 +$118 (+105%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $114 $59 −$55 (-48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $58 $44 −$14 (-25%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 35¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-35%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 43¢ $18 $31 +$13 (+72%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+90%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $220 +$109 +50%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $760 +$303 +40%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexei Popyrin vs Alexandre Muller Jan 19 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jan 19 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $45 +$182 +405%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France beat Germany? Jun 08 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? May 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-03-13? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $20 +$180 +900%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $113 1h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $170 1h
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 21h
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 24h
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 35h
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 5d
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $350 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 6d
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $101 10d
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 10d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $37 10d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $133 10d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $275 11d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 11d
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $28 11d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 11d
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 12d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 12d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $176 12d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $23 12d
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 12d
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,753.49 · official $1,754.61 (match) · 611 history records