Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B6 0xb66f…8ed1 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,090 (+10%) realized +$1,077 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$926
7 days+$97
14 days+$965
30 days+$965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$848
sports 6% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -46.9% -52.0% 27% 20% -7.8%
≤30d 29 +20.4% +8.9% 31% 28% -0.2%
≤90d 29 +20.4% +8.9% 31% 28% -0.2%
all 29 +20.4% +8.9% 31% 28% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 28% -0.2%
10% -1.5% 28% -9.7%
15% -11.0% 28% -18.5%
20% -19.7% 21% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +92% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$438 vs −$149 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$1,077
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage11d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,213 +$662 +55%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$314 +62%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$5 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,539 −$903 -59%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 +$2 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $818 −$337 -41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$379 +1845%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $704 −$700 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $711 +$765 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$296 +146%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,167 +$491 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $71 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,213 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 19¢ $47 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $636 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $601 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 79¢ $50 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $50 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 57¢ $205 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $203 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $26 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $15 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.81 · official $207.82 (match) · 66 history records