Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B6 0xb667…6a16 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$201 (+8%) realized +$100 · open +$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$347
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.4% -12.6% 82% 36% +0.9%
≤30d 11 -3.4% -12.6% 82% 36% +0.9%
≤90d 11 -3.4% -12.6% 82% 36% +0.9%
all 11 -3.4% -12.6% 82% 36% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 36% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 9% -8.7%
15% -28.6% 0% -17.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$2 · ×11.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×51.72 per $1 lost it wins $51.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 82¢ 100¢ $462 $563 +$101 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $429 +$36 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$14 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $301 +$39 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $301 +$43 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $275 +$36 +13%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $214 +$55 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $465 31m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $465 36m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $429 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $215 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $0 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $1 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $341 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $301 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $47 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $344 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $301 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $312 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $275 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 96¢ $156 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 92¢ $150 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $269 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $13 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $201 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.39 · official $563.39 (match) · 24 history records