Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb666…33a6 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$507 (-14%) realized −$763 · open +$256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$357
7 days−$357
14 days−$1,379
30 days−$1,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$571
crypto 29% −$313
tech 6% +$113
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -45.6% -50.8% 25% 25% -63.1%
≤30d 16 -11.6% -20.1% 38% 31% -44.0%
≤90d 16 -11.6% -20.1% 38% 31% -44.0%
all 16 -11.6% -20.1% 38% 31% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 31% -44.0%
10% -27.7% 31% -49.4%
15% -34.7% 25% -54.3%
20% -41.1% 25% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$175 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,195
Realized−$763
Unrealized+$256
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage17d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $600 $855 +$255 (+43%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $80 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $59 −$32 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $90 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$19 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $40 +$60 +151%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $317 +$292 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $401 −$401 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 13 $203 +$15 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $53 +$225 +423%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 13 $204 +$113 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 15h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 20h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 38¢ $40 21h
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 21h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $251 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $203 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $460 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $317 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 36¢ $210 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 18¢ $192 14d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $205 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $203 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $53 16d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 63¢ $204 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $618 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,195.15 · official $1,195.15 (match) · 59 history records