Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb660…3a72 crypto 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$649 (-1%) realized −$649 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%211W / 122L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$857
7 days+$721
14 days+$721
30 days−$1,682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,692
other 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 51% -6.0%
≤30d 333 -10.6% -19.1% 63% 45% -12.4%
≤90d 333 -10.6% -19.1% 63% 45% -12.4%
all 333 -10.6% -19.1% 63% 45% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 45% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 32% -20.8%
15% -33.9% 21% -28.4%
20% -40.4% 14% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$101 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$649
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses211 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)333 / 334
History coverage26d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 333 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $228 +$32 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $463 +$114 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $151 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $182 +$29 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $369 +$115 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $185 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $248 −$120 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$37 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $170 −$165 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$56 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$51 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $148 +$61 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $230 +$103 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $161 +$20 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $370 −$115 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $469 +$707 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$107 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $189 +$388 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $697 −$680 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $143 −$140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $707 +$106 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $214 −$210 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $213 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$28 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $145 +$125 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $54 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $123 +$50 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $164 +$78 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $154 +$92 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$42 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $86 +$50 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $151 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $98 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $77 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $212 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $253 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $233 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $114 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 918 history records