Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb65e…190d weather 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$281 (-9%) realized −$281 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%52W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$72
14 days−$150
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% −$121
sports 11% −$92
other 6% −$102
crypto 5% −$9
world 1% −$13
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -47.9% -52.8% 22% 22% -26.5%
≤30d 67 -25.2% -32.3% 30% 28% -31.0%
≤90d 156 -25.9% -32.9% 33% 33% -20.0%
all 156 -25.9% -32.9% 33% 33% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 33% -20.0%
10% -39.3% 32% -27.6%
15% -45.2% 31% -34.6%
20% -50.6% 28% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses52 / 104
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage55d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$12 -35%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 +$48 +119%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$42 +104%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$26 +128%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $146 −$8 -6%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 30 $42 −$41 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 25? May 26 $13 +$34 +255%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 25? May 25 $20 +$11 +52%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 64°F or higher on May May 25 $31 +$32 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 25? May 24 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on May 25? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 24? May 24 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 24? May 24 $21 +$55 +266%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $29 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 23? May 23 $26 −$18 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 23? May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24? May 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 24? May 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 22? May 22 $3 +$10 +316%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 19? May 22 $10 +$16 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 23? May 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 79°F or below on May 23? May 22 $31 −$24 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $16 +$12 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 22? May 22 $26 −$5 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $21 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 21? May 22 $41 +$25 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $20 45h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $21 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 14¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Under 20¢ $9 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Over 31¢ $9 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco $5 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco $10 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $83 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.05 (match) · 292 history records