Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb65a…034a other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$5
crypto 35% −$13
sports 10% +$8
politics 8% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.3% -15.2% 31% 23% -16.5%
≤30d 35 -4.5% -13.6% 34% 26% -16.0%
≤90d 35 -4.5% -13.6% 34% 26% -16.0%
all 35 -4.5% -13.6% 34% 26% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 26% -16.0%
10% -21.9% 14% -24.0%
15% -29.4% 9% -31.3%
20% -36.3% 6% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $5 30h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 31h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 31h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 31h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 31h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 31h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records