Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb658…af47 sports 395 markets active 1d ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%216W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$21
sports 33% −$36
other 1% −$3
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 62 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 5% -8.5%
all 395 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 40% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 40% -10.1%
10% -19.7% 39% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 39% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 39% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses216 / 179
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)395 / 395
History coverage220d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 395 Trades
no open positions (178 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 25? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 25? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 23? Jun 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 21? Jun 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 9? Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 8? Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 21 $54 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $8 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on May 13? May 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May May 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on May 12? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 12? May 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 8? May 09 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May May 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 7? May 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 1? May 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 1? May 01 $40 +$5 +12%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5 May 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 21? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Apr 30 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? Apr 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 18 Apr 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 19? Apr 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on April 18? Apr 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18? Apr 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 16? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 16? Apr 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 16? Apr 18 $30 $0 +0%
1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 16 $2 +$1 +73%
Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5 Apr 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 9? Apr 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 10? Apr 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 8? Apr 16 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 9? Apr 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $40 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $30 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $20 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $70 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $90 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $76 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $90 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $90 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma SELL Yes 100¢ $50 35d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY Yes 97¢ $49 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 100¢ $20 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 100¢ $7 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 99¢ $8 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 99¢ $54 36d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May SELL Yes 100¢ $49 44d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May SELL Yes 100¢ $0 44d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May BUY Yes 98¢ $49 44d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 45d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 45d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 646 history records