Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb657…0eca
world · 63 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage520d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 2 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 25¢ 21¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $76 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $123 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $40 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $34 +$3 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $85 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $73 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $8 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $145 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $8 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $72 +$1 +2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $40 −$4 -11%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $112 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $77 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% −$3
other 25% −$10
politics 22% +$1
sports 14% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $9 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $12 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 13h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 35h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $35 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $5 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 +1.2% -8.4% 35% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 57 +0.2% -9.3% 35% 2% -9.5%
all 61 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.47 · official $7.77 · 274 history records