Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb64e…5790 other 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$42
sports 19% −$13
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% +$4
economics 5% −$4
world 2% −$2
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage130d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $533 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $443 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $136 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $381 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $446 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $62 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $663 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $455 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $628 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $283 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $581 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $435 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 01 $281 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 15m
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 9h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 11h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 12h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 26h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 27h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 29h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 31h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 33h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 33h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 34h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 37h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 39h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 39h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 40h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 43h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $59 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1305 history records