Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb649…e988 sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$628 (+4%) realized +$628 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%116W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$380
14 days+$443
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$453
other 9% +$135
crypto 3% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +29.7% +17.4% 53% 53% +20.5%
≤30d 42 +26.6% +14.5% 52% 52% -2.0%
≤90d 198 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 43% -13.8%
all 226 +4.6% -5.3% 51% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 47% -6.7%
10% -14.4% 42% -15.6%
15% -22.7% 36% -23.7%
20% -30.2% 28% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$41 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$628
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses116 / 110
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 227
History coverage135d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $234 +$127 +54%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $28 +$13 +46%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17 +$26 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$55 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $45 −$44 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $47 +$30 +65%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $40 +$22 +54%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$53 +344%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$84 +546%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$9 -59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$3 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 +$28 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$27 +175%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 +$14 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $146 +$60 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $112 +$34 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $76 −$75 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $142 +$37 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $51 +$56 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $31 +$60 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $100 −$16 -16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $125 −$122 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $123 −$121 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $34 +$18 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $23 +$45 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $102 +$168 +165%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $100 +$40 +40%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $66 −$65 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $20 +$34 +172%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $59 +$36 +61%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $25 +$71 +278%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $12 +$13 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 81¢ $35 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $361 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $234 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 7h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $25 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $34 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $25 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $28 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 BUY $15 36h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $44 40h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $17 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $71 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $45 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $10 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $5 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $47 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $68 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 539 history records