Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb646…0cf9 crypto 1002 markets active 3h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,726 (-14%) realized −$6,726 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%492W / 664L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -74.7% -77.1% 7% 7% -87.5%
≤30d 504 -25.4% -32.5% 31% 29% -63.7%
≤90d 948 -13.6% -21.8% 40% 37% -48.7%
all 1156 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 39% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 39% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 36% -43.9%
15% -31.5% 33% -49.3%
20% -38.3% 27% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$59 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,726
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses492 / 664
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1156 / 1002
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1156 Trades
no open positions (448 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7AM ET Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$258 -245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 4PM ET Jun 17 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $268 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 9AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $123 −$146 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1,573 -49623%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $487 −$487 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4PM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12PM ET Jun 17 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8AM ET Jun 17 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 24? Jun 17 $457 −$477 -104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $497 −$497 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $582 −$582 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 27? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 2PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21? Jun 17 $21 −$238 -1157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 1? Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $95 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $219 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $230 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $94 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $156 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $91 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $90 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $137 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $69 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $57 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $43 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $341 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $208 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records