Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb645…2754 crypto 339 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$873 (+12%) realized +$874 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%176W / 157L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$736
sports 12% −$137
other 1% +$7
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +26.5% +14.5% 55% 52% -9.6%
≤30d 224 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 48% -16.9%
≤90d 333 +7.3% -2.9% 53% 46% -3.2%
all 333 +7.3% -2.9% 53% 46% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 46% -3.2%
10% -12.2% 39% -12.5%
15% -20.7% 29% -21.0%
20% -28.4% 22% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$874
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses176 / 157
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)333 / 339
History coverage55d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$14 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$16 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$19 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$30 -73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1420%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.79 · official $27.79 (match) · 1024 history records