Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb644…98a4 crypto 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (472 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$183 (-7%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%97W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day471.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$229
sports 7% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (472 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 +30.9% +18.4% 43% 32% -14.4%
≤30d 225 +30.9% +18.4% 43% 32% -14.4%
≤90d 225 +30.9% +18.4% 43% 32% -14.4%
all 225 +30.9% +18.4% 43% 32% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover471.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.4% 32% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here +7.1% 25% -22.6%
15% -3.3% 21% -30.0%
20% -12.8% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses97 / 128
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)225 / 225
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day471.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 225 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.44 · official $0.00 · 1445 history records