Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:15:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb640…8183
crypto · 420 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$281 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$280 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$280
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses155 / 260
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)415 / 420
History coverage161d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 5 History 415 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 26 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 24 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 10 $3 +$6 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$244
other 8% −$10
sports 4% −$25
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 26h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 26h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 26h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 26h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 28h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 35h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 10d
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 10d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 13d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.5% +9.9% 50% 50% +10.8%
≤30d 38 -49.1% -53.9% 21% 21% -50.2%
≤90d 208 -18.9% -26.6% 35% 35% -32.3%
all 415 -15.1% -23.2% 37% 37% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 37% -27.0%
10% -30.5% 37% -34.0%
15% -37.2% 37% -40.4%
20% -43.4% 37% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.97 · official $19.97 (match) · 713 history records