Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B6 0xb640…01a4 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$42 (-61%) realized −$41 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip

Net edge-83%after slip

Net WR9%break-even

Win rate9%1W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day16.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +9%

net ROI/market (all)-81.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-79.2%	-81.2%	9%	9%	-81.6%
≤30d	11	-79.2%	-81.2%	9%	9%	-81.6%
≤90d	11	-79.2%	-81.2%	9%	9%	-81.6%
all	11	-79.2%	-81.2%	9%	9%	-81.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-81.2%	9%	-81.6%
10%	-83.0%	9%	-83.3%
15%	-84.6%	9%	-84.9%
20%	-86.1%	9%	-86.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -79% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.12 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized−$41

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)9%

Wins / losses1 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)11 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day16.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-75%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$6	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$11	−$10	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$7	−$3	-50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$11	−$11	-97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$5	34m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$11	10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$3	10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$6	23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	0¢	$0	23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	5¢	$4	25h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	4¢	$3	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 19 history records