Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb63f…1a1a politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-4%) realized −$76 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$34
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$46
sports 24% −$17
other 21% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -18.8% -26.6% 0% 0% -21.4%
≤30d 32 -8.0% -16.8% 3% 3% -15.5%
≤90d 32 -8.0% -16.8% 3% 3% -15.5%
all 32 -8.0% -16.8% 3% 3% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 3% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 0% -23.6%
15% -32.0% 0% -31.0%
20% -38.7% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage27d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $7 −$2 -31%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $176 −$9 -5%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $101 −$4 -4%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $9 $0 -1%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $104 −$5 -5%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $25 −$3 -12%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $15 −$3 -17%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1 $0 -3%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $69 −$6 -9%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $132 −$7 -5%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $63 −$5 -9%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $39 −$2 -4%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $37 −$6 -16%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $14 −$1 -10%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $8 $0 -6%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $29 −$4 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.89 · official $6.89 (match) · 601 history records