Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb63e…a670 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-15%) realized −$60 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$31
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 44% -18.3%
≤30d 18 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 39% -26.5%
≤90d 18 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 39% -26.5%
all 18 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 39% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 39% -26.5%
10% -26.5% 39% -33.5%
15% -33.6% 39% -39.9%
20% -40.1% 39% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 47¢ 46¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 40¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $37 +$28 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $24 +$20 +83%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $9 +$12 +134%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $32 +$19 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $23 −$2 -8%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $54 −$30 -55%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $14 +$13 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $4 +$5 +119%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $8 +$10 +119%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $35 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $31 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 46¢ $6 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $6 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $24 28h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $9 28h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $37 29h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $32 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $14 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $21 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $11 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $12 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $42 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $23 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $4 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $14 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $8 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $9 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $30 7d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $19 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $17 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $23 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.66 · official $63.66 (match) · 39 history records