Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb63d…5f12 other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% $0
world 34% −$3
politics 18% +$3
crypto 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 7% -10.5%
≤90d 16 -1.5% -10.9% 19% 6% -10.4%
all 64 -0.9% -10.3% 44% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage456d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $32 −$3 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $17 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $7 −$2 -23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? May 30 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? May 29 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 29 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 23 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 21 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? May 21 $36 −$1 -2%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will 'Mononoke The Movie: The Phantom in the Rain' win Crunchyroll's F May 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 19 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nacionalista win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $3 $0 +8%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 12 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $13 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $37 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $37 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $9 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $20 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $32 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.86 · official $31.86 (match) · 211 history records