Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb638…26db crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate71%90W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +10.2% -0.3% 77% 73% -2.0%
≤30d 51 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 61% -5.9%
≤90d 84 +3.8% -6.1% 75% 55% -6.5%
all 126 +1.7% -8.0% 71% 51% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 51% -8.4%
10% -16.8% 17% -17.1%
15% -24.9% 5% -25.1%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses90 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage96d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $5 −$2 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 272 history records