Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb635…f0fd politics 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,420 (-5%) realized −$4,957 · open +$537
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%59W / 55L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$817per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$180
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$7,728
economics 26% +$9,383
crypto 14% −$5,806
world 10% +$451
other 9% +$90
finance 5% −$1,291
tech 1% +$404
culture 1% +$147
sports 0% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.4% +2.6% 100% 100% +2.6%
≤30d 6 -10.5% -19.1% 33% 33% -32.3%
≤90d 33 +26.0% +14.0% 52% 48% +7.5%
all 114 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 45% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 45% -14.5%
10% -15.0% 34% -22.7%
15% -23.2% 29% -30.2%
20% -30.7% 23% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$740) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$503 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$3,559
Realized−$4,957
Unrealized+$537
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses59 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)114 / 118
History coverage592d
Avg bet$817
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $2,311 $2,757 +$446 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $423 $468 +$44 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $169 $192 +$24 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 70¢ $120 $142 +$23 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $37 +$5 +13%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $381 −$163 -43%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $281 −$21 -8%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 05 $48 −$36 -76%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $255 −$186 -73%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 +$124 +123%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? May 01 $305 +$97 +32%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $62 +$39 +63%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $233 −$111 -48%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $3,876 −$321 -8%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $10 +$71 +711%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 29 $100 −$87 -87%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 28 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 27 $205 +$4 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $100 +$212 +212%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $610 +$459 +75%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $1,190 −$606 -51%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $250 +$317 +127%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $25 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $2,717 +$377 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $102 +$243 +239%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 17 $1,221 −$546 -45%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $1,426 +$495 +35%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $740 +$282 +38%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Apr 12 $907 +$351 +39%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Apr 10 $2,976 +$1,139 +38%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Apr 04 $2,246 +$1,135 +50%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 04 $520 −$61 -12%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 03 $203 −$52 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? Apr 01 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Mar 26 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 22 $318 +$203 +64%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 18 $505 +$104 +21%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Mar 12 $1,609 +$2,613 +162%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap Mar 10 $586 +$740 +126%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $5,828 −$4,289 -74%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Feb 12 $2,011 +$1,198 +60%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 12 $101 −$38 -38%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 12 $1,277 −$31 -2%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Feb 12 $200 +$79 +39%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the Febru Feb 11 $963 −$234 -24%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 09 $2,063 +$313 +15%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 09 $649 +$893 +138%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $878 −$229 -26%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 04 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Feb 03 $145 +$116 +80%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Feb 02 $130 +$68 +52%
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Feb 02 $70 +$17 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $42 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $305 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $45 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 25¢ $217 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 45¢ $9 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 44¢ $180 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 40¢ $115 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 39¢ $77 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 61¢ $191 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 61¢ $200 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 36¢ $69 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 40¢ $81 15d
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang SELL No 16¢ $12 15d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 SELL Yes 18¢ $69 15d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 63¢ $154 17d
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang BUY No 63¢ $48 17d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 64¢ $101 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $70 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $72 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $74 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $45 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 18d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $226 23d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 23d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 23d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,558.78 · official $3,558.78 (match) · 976 history records