Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb635…180d sports 16 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+5%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$60
other 16% −$39
crypto 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.8% -16.5% 25% 25% -6.2%
≤30d 16 -7.8% -16.5% 25% 25% -6.2%
≤90d 16 -7.8% -16.5% 25% 25% -6.2%
all 16 -7.8% -16.5% 25% 25% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 25% -6.2%
10% -24.5% 25% -15.2%
15% -31.8% 25% -23.4%
20% -38.5% 25% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$13 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $21 +$79 +365%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $8 −$5 -65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$30 +156%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $32 −$2 -5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 −$19 -68%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $18 −$15 -84%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$16 -63%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 −$1 -4%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $33 +$57 +172%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 31¢ $30 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $11 18h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $18 18h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $14 19h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $32 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 28h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 28h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 9¢ $9 28h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $39 29h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $25 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 41h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $29 41h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $33 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records