trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 67% | 33% | -3.2% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 42% | 8% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 42% | 8% | -8.4% |
| all | 25 | +1.6% | -8.0% | 44% | 8% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.0% | 8% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -16.8% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -24.9% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $22 | −$1 | -3% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $8 | $0 | +5% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 22 | $33 | +$5 | +14% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $51 | −$1 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 01 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 31 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 30 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 28 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 01 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | May 07 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 24 | $107 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof | Apr 24 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | Apr 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 23 | $107 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? | Apr 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | Apr 22 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 21 | $118 | −$1 | -0% |